Moldova: An Old Hot Potato in European Security

Moldovan elections have once more put the country on our mental maps - for a moment. The country deserves to stay there for a while longer. There is indeed reason to fear that Mr. Putin will now help put it higher on Europe's security agenda, as Judy Dempsey suggested today in the Moscow Times (December 4, 2014). In other words, as we shall see, the election results of November 30 reflect more than a passing cleavage between East and West.

The background is this. Part of Moldova has been a de-facto Russian exclave since 1991, when the Soviet Union died and the Post-Cold War Russian Federation was born. The Republic of Moldova arose along with it. In hindsight its modern history might look like a plan conceived by Mr. Putin, only he wasn't there at the time. A combination of chance and foresight allowed ex-soviet loyalists in Moldova, with open and clandestine support from Russia, to retain a military foothold there on the pretext of guarding a soviet-era munitions depot and armaments factory.

Already before Moldova's independence was fully established, the region along the east bank of the Dniester river declared its secession from Moldova and after a short and bloody war managed to solidify its claim. Transnistria has since been run by old soviet army veterans and emigré politicos in the rebel capital Tiraspol, although no other UN member has ever recognized them. To calm the simmering conflict, the OSCE authorized a peace-keeping force to be stationed in the breakaway republic. Somehow this mission ended up consisting only of Russian military personnel. Russia does not need to invade Moldova. It is already there.

Moldova's divided condition is a nearly perfect example of what a relentless campaign of politico-military meddling and influence-mongering by Russia can produce - and apparently is producing in many other places between the EU and Russia.*

But, to be fair, there is also a strong element of pro-Russian feeling even in the population on the western side. This can be seen in the simultaneous victory of a pro-Russian Socialist party (21%), and the likely majority coalition of three pro-EU parties (jointly 45%, yielding a slim majority in the parliament). The Communists (18%) are not unequivocally pro-Russian, but have for some years declared in favor of closer relations to the EU. The present outcome, divided as it is, is nevertheless not new, it is similar to most previous parliamentary elections in Moldova in which blocs have been hovering around a 50/50 split, with the Communist Party previously in a dominating role it has since lost. Presidential elections, indirect through the parliament, were effectively stalemated for nearly three years from 2009 by political infighting and procedural issues.

Two additional problems add to Moldova's woes: endemic corruption, and near-total dependence on gas from Russia. When gas prices are disputed with Russia, the supply is shut off - always in winter, of course. A combination of these two problems recently showed up when Moldova opened a new gas pipeline from Romania to add an alternative, non-Russian source of energy supply: There was no gas in the pipeline. Surprise!**

In formal terms the Republic of Moldova is an independent state, member of the United Nations, the OSCE and the WTO. Moldova signed an association agreement with the European Union in 2014. The question of candidacy for accession to the EU is not yet on the table, however, and Russia has issued a warning against such a move - in itself indicative of the kind of unashamed pressure the Kremlin applies to presumably independent countries.

Informally, Moldova's political status is therefore a bit ambiguous. The EU, on the other hand, has a considerable presence via bilateral agreements to provide assistance to the reconstruction of key sectors of Moldova's public administration.

Among the multifarious pieces and fragments of the old Soviet Union, Moldova fits a broader pattern: footholds, or toeholds, for Kremlin remote control or influence. Partly on legal grounds, partly on military grounds, partly based on popular affinities. Kaliningrad, annexed in 1944, was perhaps the first of this kind; the annexation of Crimea the most recent. Despite the formalities, Moldova was in reality never released from Russian ties since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Endless talks in various formats, involving at different times the EU, the OSCE, Russia and Ukraine, have tried to untangle the security knot of the armaments depots and the political knot of the divided affections of the population. In the process Moldova's Chisinau government has entered numerous agreements with the breakaway government, many brokered by Russia and Ukraine. These agreements have subsequently tied its hands.***

Only the EU has the potential to drag the country out of Putin's clutches. After the elections the Commission issued a conditionally supportive statement on December 1, 2014 (excerpt):

"... A new impetus to key reforms will be crucial for the Republic of Moldova´s political association and economic integration with the EU. The EU will remain a reliable partner supporting the Republic of Moldova´s reform endeavours and working towards unleashing the full benefits of the Association Agreement in the interest of all its citizens, wherever they live."

It also said:

"The EU remains committed to work with the future government towards a comprehensive, peaceful settlement of the Transnistrian conflict based on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova with a special status for Transnistria. ..."

The issues are recognized, and the slow, patient route towards a solution agreed to by all is pointed out. In Moldova, the EU vs Russia is pedagogy competing with the power of money and weapons.

The big question for the EU is whether the 28 members really want to put the resources and serious effort into it that the problem requires. When it comes to spheres of influence, Putin is serious. In Brussels, spheres of influence are known only as ancient history.

*Judy Dempsey, "The Western Balkans are Becoming Russia's New Playground", November 24, 2014, http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=57301&reloadFlag=1.

**"Empty Pipeline Shows Difficulty Of Breaking Moldova's Gazprom Addiction." By Liliana Barbarosie and Robert Coalson. RFE-RL September 29, 2014.

*** For more on this, see: "Executive Summary: Moldova’s Transnistrian Conflict." Prepared by Olav F. Knudsen, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) with assistance from Andris Spruds, Latvian Institute of International Affairs and Barbara Kunz, SIIA.

http://transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/transatlantic-topics/Articles/friends-of-belarus/moldova_exec_summ.pdf

Russia and the Sphere of Influence - Back from its Shallow Grave

One of the axioms of the brave new world that emerged as the Berlin Wall fell was supposedly the end of power politics, at least among industrialized nations. No more of the old, tainted notion of spheres of influence. Instead there would be endless opportunities for cooperation. Win-win was the slogan of the 1990s. Well, one place where win-win was a hard sell was in Moscow. Win-lose was a well-established concept in that part of the world, and what need was there for anything to replace it?

So we discover, belatedly, that the Russians do not consider themselves bound by broadly agreed international rules and that they will certainly not abide by Western rules of conduct, whether in diplomacy or in military procedure short of war. Actually, the Kosovo War in 1999 had already demonstrated this, but by most observers it was set aside as exceptional. Now we see it is not. This split over basic rules of conduct is the procedural side of the Western conflict with Russia. It is evident in the lack of progress in the post-Crimean talks between Foreign Ministers Lavrov and Kerry.

Then there is the substantive side. Consider the Russian preference for spheres of influence.

In 1997, anticipating and seeking to preempt a Finnish and Swedish move to join NATO, Russia made an under-the-table proposal to make the Baltic Sea region into a "non-bloc zone", encapsulating even the three Baltic states. The states in the area were to promise they would abstain from joining alliances. A flurry of low-key "preventive" diplomacy followed, led by Finland and Sweden, to put the proposal aside. And fortunately, the world never heard of that non-bloc zone again.

Until now, that is. On March 17, the day after the tainted Crimean referendum, the Russian Federation set forth a proposal for the future of Ukraine, covering both its internal affairs and its foreign relations. On the latter, it was said, “'[Ukraine’s] sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral military-political status will be guaranteed by Russia, the EU and the US, supported by a UN Security Council resolution'. The document appeared to make clear that Russia’s main 'red line' was future Nato membership for Ukraine..." (Financial Times, March 17, 2014) We see the same underlying fear here, on the part of Russia, as that which triggered their invasion of Georgia in 2008. Any proposed guaranteed neutrality for Ukraine must be up to Ukrainians themselves to consider, not for others to discuss over their heads.

Am I not too hasty in saying the assumptions of post-cold war east west relations are no longer valid?

One way to examine that is to object to this degree of generalization, and point out that the circumstances preceding the Crimea annexation were special. Ukraine had descended into a chaos in the streets of Kiev and other cities, lasting for months, and barely ending when the Ukrainian president Yanukovich fled to Russia. That led the Russian speaking majority population of Crimea to call for a transfer of their region to Russia, to which Russia for historical and other reasons could not but respond positively. Moreover, the historical loss of former Russian-controlled territory here and elsewhere was an accident; the dissolution of the Soviet Union was “... the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century”, according to Mr. Putin, and so we should have understanding for their loss and support the return of what is rightfully theirs. By some accounts, not just old Soviet but also old Russian imperial territory. Such as Ukraine, of course, but also Moldova, Georgia, Finland and the Baltic states.

Not everyone is ready to believe that Putin's ambitions are this great. On the other hand, nor is everybody ready to accept the argument about the worthiness of Russian imperial restoration.

The other answer on East-West relations is that Russia will take, by stealth or by force, what they want and cannot get by diplomacy. This fits a recognizable pattern. Pristina Airport in 1999 was a perfect example of the Russian mode of operation. They did it for their friends, the Serbs, of course. They were crystal clear about who their friends were; others were treated like enemies, even in a negotiated partnership operation under UN auspices. The Georgian invasion in 2008 was another example.

NATO must now resume its prior, more vigilant attitude and its better prepared military posture towards Russia. Good that NATO has just selected as its new Secretary General Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, the former Prime Minister of Norway, this country being the only original NATO member with a direct border to Russia and a healthy sceptical attitude to that eastern neighbour ever since 1991. A revised military posture does not mean itching for a shooting war, but being better prepared in posturing and holding. There is a lot of chess in this, and the Russians love that game.

The Russian behavior pattern is to a considerable extent opportunistic. They are robbers by opportunity. If you have something you want to keep, you have to hold it securely, and with strength.

Given what we now know, I question the wisdom of the Ottowa Convention on land mines. Passive means of defense, adequately protected, are workable. Finland and the Baltic states would be in a much better position with land mines on their border with Russia.

Some would put all their trust in the Americans. Look how President Obama is being hounded for his pusillanimous stance over Ukraine. I doubt there was anything much he could have done, short of going to war. Posturing without readiness to fight is only dangerous. I'm afraid US backup of NATO allies via the article V guarantee is less firm than often believed. Let us not get to the point of testing it.

Finally, of course, there is the EU's dependency on Russian natural gas. The EU was warned so many times. (Check out the writings of Vladimir Socor.) But, apparently, they thought, how convenient to have it all from one source. My lament is merely, why are we Europeans endowed with such geopolitical brilliance at the Parliamentary level?

Am I alarmist on Russia? Of course. Just as I've been a couple of times before. In 1980 over Afghanistan. In 1992 over Soviet fragmentation. My Norwegian colleagues shook their heads. Some will again.

Puzzle of Catalonia's Independence Elections Nov 25

Catalonia's extraordinary parliamentary elections on November 25 was a big let-down for the initiator, President Artur Mas. The point of having a snap election was to have his party benefit from a presumed new wave of support for independence from Spain. That has now proved a mirage. And Mr. Mas had really gone out on a limb during the campaign, promoting his scheme with bold words, raising unfounded prospects of immediate EU membership for an independent Catalonia and offending the Madrid government along the way with brazen statements – all of which now puts his failure in an even worse light.

As it turned out, his center-right party, CiU (Convergència i Unió), lost dramatically, dropping from 62 to 50 seats in the 135-seat parliament. At the same time the leftist republican independence party ERC (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya) had a very good election result, doubling their number of seats and recapturing the strength they had before 2010.

For two parties with the same main goal to come out with opposite results is, indeed,  strange. It becomes even stranger by the biases at work in the reporting. Many news headlines in Spain and around the world pronounce CiU the winner. Of course, CiU does come out way ahead of all other parties, twice as big as the next party. The only thing is, CiU was even bigger before.

What is remarkable in these election results is that CiU, the strongest independence party, finds itself rejected, while there is still a majority of seats won by parties in favor of independence. Actually, the proportion is almost exactly the same it was before the elections (independence parties CiU + ERC 72 seats until Nov 25, 71 seats after). The strength of independence opinion is also seen in the shares of votes cast: about 57% in favor of independence from Spain if you add in the smaller parties - ICV-EUiA (Greens) with 10% of the vote, and CUP (Candidatura Unitat Popular) 3,5%. Previously, during the election campaign the figure 57% in favor of independence from Spain was measured in polls conducted during November. (Hence, my previous blog on this subject was in error regarding this statistic.) There is, in other words, an undeniable sentiment favoring independence in Catalonia, and it has not become weaker. 

Nevertheless, given all the loud campaigning in favor of a push for a referendum, this election must be deemed a failure for that cause. No wonder Mas has called for a moment of reflection.

In the meantime Catalonia needs a government. There are three other parties that have enough seats to bring about a majority, but only one of those (ERC) is in favor of independence. That is, conservative CiU has no other potential partner to govern with than leftist ERC. The latter's leader, Oriol Junqueras, sounds like he is favorable to a collaboration with CiU, despite their ideological differences. The project of a referendum on independence is still one on which the two parties have the same view. They also have it within their power to bring it about, although such a coalition itself would be unprecedented.

However, the future for an independent Catalonia no longer seems as bright as before. EU Commission President José Manuel Barroso has said in no uncertain terms that a new state seceding from an existing EU member state will not automatically become an EU member. It will first have the status of «third country» with respect to the EU, and will have to apply for membership like any other non-member. New members will need the affirmative vote of all existing members, including Spain. Obviously, a runaway former province of Spain will not receive that crucial vote.

Wisely, by this announcement the EU has dampened the independence zeal of many a discontented province in its member countries, among which may currently be counted at least Scotland and the Flemish part of Belgium.