The elections of 21 December came and went, orderly and quietly, and the results - in spite of all the hue and cry over the unilateral declaration of independence - made it appear as if time had stood still since 2015. The separatists got almost exactly the same share of the votes they had two years ago (47%). The main difference was that the loyalist opposition mobilized the greatest number of votes for their main party, so that Ciudadanos / Ciutadans became the biggest party in Catalonia. But not big enough to form a new anti-separatist government.
Among the separatists the headaches are equally bad. With the separatist ex-president, Carles Puigdemont, still in flight in Brussels, and his ex-Vice President, Oriol Junqueras still in jail in Madrid, now the three parties no longer agree on basics. The centrist Puigdemont still wants to be president, but socialist Junqueras thinks him a coward for not returning from exile and wants to be president himself. Either way, they are both likely to be disappointed since they are both wanted by the Spanish authorities for sedition and rebellion. The third separatist party CUP (anti-capitalist anarchists) are mainly concerned to complete the road towards independence. Their votes in the new parliament are required for the separatists to create a majority coalition.
Some have urged Inés Arrimadas, the leader of the winning party, Ciutadans, to try forming a government without a secure majority, but she has so far rejected that call.
As part of his management of the Article 155 regime for Catalonia, Prime Minister Rajoy has imposed a deadline of January 17 for the new government to be formed. With the situation as described above, and court cases waiting for a number of those just elected, the future of Catalonia seems less orderly than ever.
Reverberations from the Catalonian case seem unavoidable. Already a national debate is gradually getting underway about reforming the Constitution of 1978, and various models for recognizing - somehow - the national consciousness in other Spanish regions are being floated. Even if Catalonia never gets its independence, it is about to shake Spain to its foundations.
