As a citizen of Norway, a
country that won its independence by seceding unilaterally in 1905
(from Sweden), how can I not be rooting for Catalonian independence?
The background stories are largely the same. A militarily imposed
union. Attempts to make the union work within a democratic framework.
Economic grievances. A distinct language. Both Catalonia and Norway
have had these experiences. (For more background on Catalonia and
independence, see my blogs in October 2012 and May 2013.)
Still, Catalonia and Norway
are different. Just for one crucial thing, popular support was vastly
stronger in Norway in 1905 than it is in Catalonia today. In Norway
the referendum held on the issue of independence was decided by a
whopping 99,95% in favor. In Catalonia the most
positive result expected would appear to be around 60%, possibly
less. To end up with a minority against independence as large as 40%
would make the whole project politically a dead duck.
This is not what you heard on Catalonia Day 11 September – la Diada Nacional de
Catalunya. A human chain of hundreds of thousands of Catalonian
nationalists, holding hands, symbolically linked their hopes and
demands for freedom, in an event said to be inspired by the way the Baltic
populations marked their demands for freedom from Soviet
oppression in 1989.
As someone who spent some
time in the Baltics back in those days, I can only say the comparison
is vastly overblown and indeed grotesque. The Balts were under
totalitarian oppression, not allowed to use their own languages, not
allowed freedom of expression, not allowed the ordinary Western
democratic freedoms that Catalonia along with the rest of Spain has
enjoyed since 1975.
As if to top it off with a transition from the grotesque to the farcical, Latvia's Prime Minister Dombrovsksis on this occasion makes a statement of Baltic support for the "hypothetical" case of Catalonian independence, and Spain's Minister of Foreign Affairs Margallo declares Catalonia has a point and should be treated more leniently. Not exactly Mariano Rajoy's week, as the stolid Prime Minister of Spain was preparing his belated response to the circus.
During the
past six months the Catalonian leadership semed to have been brought
to its senses by Madrid's low key policy of private persuasion and
constitutional pressure, along with the straits of Catalonia's economic hardship. But Artur Mas is not so easily tamed. The
President of Catalonia, who rode high a year ago on nationalist
sentiment, peaking with an
immodest declaration of sovereignty by the Catalonian parliament in
January 2013, conceded to private talks with Premier Rajoy in
the spring.
Those talks have recently
been resumed in the summer of 2013. They initially appeared to have a beneficial effect, when on September 5, President Mas declared that the
promised referendum on independence, previously scheduled
for 2014 regardless, is now only going to be held if it can be done
«legally». If it cannot be held legally, it will
be postponed until the next scheduled Catalonian elections of 2016, Mas said, and will then be designated as a plebiscite on independence.
By the time Independence day came along the following week, Mr. Mas had changed his mind again. Mas now insists he still intends to
have the referendum in 2014.
Prime Minister Rajoy, trying to manage this process from Madrid, has just given his public response in a letter to the Catalonian president on September 14. Dialogue is the only way, he says. No direct comment is given on the desired referendum, though implicitly it is rejected again.
Mr Rajoy is not wrong to insist on respect for the Spanish constitution, but he disregards the urgent need for a long-term overhaul of the constitutional structure
of Spain. Catalonia's crisis is a chance to effect a change covering all of Spain's autonomous
regions («states»), not just Catalonia. No doubt about it, a
constitutional revision in the direction of federalism would be a
good thing for a country that already is a de-facto federation. The
Socialist Party (PSOE) now has made federalism part of its program.
So far Rajoy has refused to let his Partido Popular open up for even a debate on these issues. His most recent letter to Mas indicates he is not about to change his mind.
We need an end to Rajoy's stasis, and to Mas's slippery shifts, to put us beyond the current fiscal, financial and
administrative mess of the Catalonian circus. Had there been a clearcut response in Catalonian public opinion, this case could have been much simpler.
(*Revised September 16 from the first version of September 10.)
