With the Sochi Olympics successfully out of the way, President
Vladimir Putin's main worry may likely be Ukraine. And at this
particular moment, on Sunday, February 23, 2014, Ukraine is without
leadership. The President has disappeared, there is no police, just
the Parliament and its Speaker, appointed temporarily to assume
presidential authority. Masses are still gathered in the streets of
Kiev, still suspicious of any claim to authority, even from Yulia
Timoshenko, former prime minister and unsuccessful presidential
candidate, just released from prison on their demand.
So what has this confusion got to do with Russia? Not much more
than Russia's power position in the world. With Ukraine part of
Russia for centuries, Russia was powerful. Without it, so much less.
When the Soviet Union fell apart, and Ukraine found itself
independent, the expectation was they would soon find their way
together again. That did not happen. And without Ukraine, Russia sees
itself as so much less than in their former united position. Ukraine,
the cradle of Russia.
Estonian politicians I interviewed before their country was
accepted to join NATO still said Russia was no threat to them -
"not as long as Ukraine stays independent". Other Baltic
leaders echoed this view. Without Ukraine, Russia is perhaps a great
power, sort of. United with Ukraine, Russia will once more be a
superpower. Or so they think.
Leaders of other leading powers think so, too. US policy on Ukraine has been
consistently supportive, no matter what. EU policy has been lined up
in a similar effort. Both see a tottering giant and struggle to keep
it from collapse. Keeping Ukraine afloat is as much about keeping
Russia weak as about securing Ukraine's freedom.
If Ukrainians can sort out their troubles and disagreements,
chances are they will be okay. But those troubles are not likely to
disappear quickly; they have been on display for years and have much
to do with the divided nature of their country's identity, but also
much to do with a rather chaos-prone political culture. United they
stood in the Orange Revolution of 2004, divided they were,
nevertheless, soon thereafter when their leaders fell out. United
they have been standing in Freedom Square, Maidan, for months until
their oppressor fell. Can they stand up to the vacuum that follows?
Russia's possibilities are legion. Deposed president Yanukovich
will seek their backing. With Ukraine without leadership, military or
manipulative steps need not be drastic to tip the scales once more in
the other direction. Watch Russia during the coming weeks! And watch
the game between the great powers as well.
