Wednesday, September 26, 2018

A New Way forward for Catalonia?


Pedro Sanchez, Prime Minister of Spain since June 2018, has had a few months to form his views of the Catalan independence case from his new lookout point. During the long Catalonian crisis of 2017-18 Sanchez as leader of the opposition had been fully supportive of the PP Government's introduction of central rule (article 155), even demanding tougher action before the government did. But now Sanchez heads a weak minority government. To move the conflict out of the deadlocked position it is in he needs to show a more constructive attitude and distinguish himself from the unyielding stances of Mariano Rajoy, his predecessor, and Quim Torra, the new Catalonian PM since May.

An early signal of motion came this summer when Sanchez had a skirmish in the Congress of Deputies with ERC representatives of Catalonia. The independentistas were demanding another referendum on independence. To that Sanchez responded – showing some sympathy – that "Catalonia has self-government statutes which they did not vote for, but which were the product of a Constitutional Court judgement [in 2010], therefore the crisis can only be put right by voting. But the fundamental difference between us," he emphasized, "is that we want to vote an agreement, whereas you are aiming to vote for a rupture." (La Vanguardia 2018/07/17)

By referring to the sore point of the autonomy statutes voted by Catalonia in 2006 but rejected by the Constitutional Court in 2010, Sanchez put himself for a moment on the side of the separatistas – not because he shared their goal, but because the Court's handling of the statutes had been a PP (conservative) project not shared by the social democratic PSOE.

Later (September 3) Pedro Sanchez gave a long interview with Cadena Ser. Since this was his first in-depth commentary on the conflict after taking over as head of government, it may be worth having a look at what he said, as reported by El Pais. Sanchez started by emphasizing the basics of the government's position: "Law and dialogue". To an outside observer this seems appropriate, to say the least. Both law and dialogue have suffered in Catalonia for years. A rogue minority has grabbed for itself 100% of the power that it has only 47% of the voters' support for. Dialogue has been professed as a goal, but only if the outcome is given at the outset as independence. As Sanchez emphasized in the interview, "It is not independence that is at risk in Catalonia, it is civic coexistence within Catalonia." Dialogue in this case has two dimensions – dialogue with Madrid, and dialogue within Catalonia.

In other words, the need for Catalans to talk with their opponents at home was a central theme for Sanchez. "The first that needs to be done is to set the foundations for an institutionalized dialogue." Sanchez' words recall the East European processes of round-table dialogue in the early 1990s, where opposing groups with fundamentally different views would meet regularly to seek consensus on ways forward. The Catalan separatists seem to be unaware of recent European history. In Sanchez' words, "The independence movement needs to become self-critical."

In an aside the Prime Minister touched on an issue especially sensitive this summer, the yellow ribbons worn to remind separatist sympathizers of so-called 'political prisoners', those Catalan activists and politicians who were jailed and are awaiting trial for organizing the illegal October 1st referendum of 2017. Even buildings have been adorned with these symbols, and loyalists have been arrested or attacked for trying to remove them. - "I am against all the symbols that separate," says Sanchez. "The only way to solve the crisis is to overcome bloc politics."

I believe Sanchez, if he sticks to the points made in this interview, has found a few elements of wisdom that could nudge Catalonia towards healing. But they need to be picked up by the separatists as well. Their stance continues to be irreconcilable. 

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Catalonia dèjà vu - or maybe not?

The elections of 21 December came and went, orderly and quietly, and the results - in spite of all the hue and cry over the unilateral declaration of independence - made it appear as if time had stood still since 2015. The separatists got almost exactly the same share of the votes they had two years ago (47%). The main difference was that the loyalist opposition mobilized the greatest number of votes for their main party, so that Ciudadanos / Ciutadans became the biggest party in Catalonia. But not big enough to form a new anti-separatist government. 

Among the separatists the headaches are equally bad. With the separatist ex-president, Carles Puigdemont, still in flight in Brussels, and his ex-Vice President, Oriol Junqueras still in jail in Madrid, now the three parties no longer agree on basics. The centrist  Puigdemont still wants to be president, but socialist Junqueras thinks him a coward for not returning from exile and wants to be president himself. Either way, they are both likely to be disappointed since they are both wanted by the Spanish authorities for sedition and rebellion. The third separatist party CUP (anti-capitalist anarchists) are mainly concerned to complete the road towards independence. Their votes in the new parliament are required for the separatists to create a majority coalition. 

Some have urged Inés Arrimadas, the leader of the winning party, Ciutadans, to try forming a government without a secure majority, but she has so far rejected that call. 

As part of his management of the Article 155 regime for Catalonia, Prime Minister Rajoy has imposed a deadline of January 17 for the new government to be formed. With the situation as described above, and court cases waiting for a number of those just elected, the future of Catalonia seems less orderly than ever.

Reverberations from the Catalonian case seem unavoidable. Already a national debate is gradually getting underway about reforming the Constitution of 1978, and various models for recognizing - somehow - the national consciousness in other Spanish regions are being floated. Even if Catalonia never gets its independence, it is about to shake Spain to its foundations.