Catalonia's extraordinary parliamentary
elections on November 25 was a big let-down for the initiator,
President Artur Mas. The point of having a snap election was to have
his party benefit from a presumed new wave of support for
independence from Spain. That has now proved a mirage. And Mr. Mas
had really gone out on a limb during the campaign, promoting his
scheme with bold words, raising unfounded prospects of immediate EU
membership for an independent Catalonia and offending the Madrid
government along the way with brazen statements – all of which now
puts his failure in an even worse light.
As it turned out, his center-right party, CiU
(Convergència i Unió), lost dramatically, dropping from 62
to 50 seats in the 135-seat parliament. At the same time the leftist
republican independence party ERC (Esquerra Republicana de
Catalunya) had a very good election result, doubling their number
of seats and recapturing the strength they had before 2010.
For two parties with the same main goal to come out with opposite results is, indeed, strange. It becomes even stranger by the biases at work in the reporting. Many
news headlines in Spain and around the world pronounce CiU the
winner. Of course, CiU does come out way ahead of all other parties,
twice as big as the next party. The only thing is, CiU was even bigger before.
What is remarkable in these election results is that CiU, the
strongest independence party, finds itself rejected, while there is
still a majority of seats won by parties in favor of independence.
Actually, the proportion is almost exactly the same it was before the elections (independence parties CiU + ERC 72 seats until Nov 25, 71 seats after). The strength of independence opinion is also seen in the shares of votes cast: about 57% in
favor of independence from Spain if you add in the smaller parties - ICV-EUiA (Greens) with 10% of the vote, and CUP (Candidatura Unitat Popular)
3,5%. Previously, during the election campaign the figure 57% in favor of independence from Spain was measured in polls conducted during
November. (Hence, my previous blog on this subject was in error regarding this statistic.) There is, in other words, an undeniable sentiment favoring
independence in Catalonia, and it has not become weaker.
Nevertheless, given all the loud campaigning in
favor of a push for a referendum, this election must be deemed a
failure for that cause. No wonder Mas has called for a moment of reflection.
In the meantime Catalonia needs a
government. There are three other parties that have enough seats to
bring about a majority, but only one of those (ERC) is in favor of
independence. That is, conservative CiU has no other potential partner to govern
with than leftist ERC. The latter's leader, Oriol Junqueras, sounds like he is
favorable to a collaboration with CiU, despite their ideological
differences. The project of a referendum on independence is still one
on which the two parties have the same view. They also have it within
their power to bring it about, although such a coalition itself would be unprecedented.
However, the future for an independent
Catalonia no longer seems as bright as before. EU Commission
President José Manuel Barroso has said in no uncertain terms that a new state
seceding from an existing EU member state will not automatically
become an EU member. It will first have the status of «third
country» with respect to the EU, and will have to apply for
membership like any other non-member. New members will need the
affirmative vote of all existing members, including Spain. Obviously,
a runaway former province of Spain will not receive that crucial
vote.
Wisely, by this announcement the EU has
dampened the independence zeal of many a discontented province in its
member countries, among which may currently be counted at least
Scotland and the Flemish part of Belgium.
