Catalonia's extraordinary parliamentary
elections on November 25 was a big let-down for the initiator,
President Artur Mas. The point of having a snap election was to have
his party benefit from a presumed new wave of support for
independence from Spain. That has now proved a mirage. And Mr. Mas
had really gone out on a limb during the campaign, promoting his
scheme with bold words, raising unfounded prospects of immediate EU
membership for an independent Catalonia and offending the Madrid
government along the way with brazen statements – all of which now
puts his failure in an even worse light.
As it turned out, his center-right party, CiU
(Convergència i Unió), lost dramatically, dropping from 62
to 50 seats in the 135-seat parliament. At the same time the leftist
republican independence party ERC (Esquerra Republicana de
Catalunya) had a very good election result, doubling their number
of seats and recapturing the strength they had before 2010.
For two parties with the same main goal to come out with opposite results is, indeed, strange. It becomes even stranger by the biases at work in the reporting. Many
news headlines in Spain and around the world pronounce CiU the
winner. Of course, CiU does come out way ahead of all other parties,
twice as big as the next party. The only thing is, CiU was even bigger before.
What is remarkable in these election results is that CiU, the
strongest independence party, finds itself rejected, while there is
still a majority of seats won by parties in favor of independence.
Actually, the proportion is almost exactly the same it was before the elections (independence parties CiU + ERC 72 seats until Nov 25, 71 seats after). The strength of independence opinion is also seen in the shares of votes cast: about 57% in
favor of independence from Spain if you add in the smaller parties - ICV-EUiA (Greens) with 10% of the vote, and CUP (Candidatura Unitat Popular)
3,5%. Previously, during the election campaign the figure 57% in favor of independence from Spain was measured in polls conducted during
November. (Hence, my previous blog on this subject was in error regarding this statistic.) There is, in other words, an undeniable sentiment favoring
independence in Catalonia, and it has not become weaker.
Nevertheless, given all the loud campaigning in
favor of a push for a referendum, this election must be deemed a
failure for that cause. No wonder Mas has called for a moment of reflection.
In the meantime Catalonia needs a
government. There are three other parties that have enough seats to
bring about a majority, but only one of those (ERC) is in favor of
independence. That is, conservative CiU has no other potential partner to govern
with than leftist ERC. The latter's leader, Oriol Junqueras, sounds like he is
favorable to a collaboration with CiU, despite their ideological
differences. The project of a referendum on independence is still one
on which the two parties have the same view. They also have it within
their power to bring it about, although such a coalition itself would be unprecedented.
However, the future for an independent
Catalonia no longer seems as bright as before. EU Commission
President José Manuel Barroso has said in no uncertain terms that a new state
seceding from an existing EU member state will not automatically
become an EU member. It will first have the status of «third
country» with respect to the EU, and will have to apply for
membership like any other non-member. New members will need the
affirmative vote of all existing members, including Spain. Obviously,
a runaway former province of Spain will not receive that crucial
vote.
Wisely, by this announcement the EU has
dampened the independence zeal of many a discontented province in its
member countries, among which may currently be counted at least
Scotland and the Flemish part of Belgium.
5 comments:
Perhaps Arturo should change his family name to Menos.
He qualifies by now. But the Spanish press has suggested that long ago. Madrid papers have been having their fun with him for months, also about what they see as his snobbish first name (Artur, without the Spanish o).
Again a late reaction - for, in the meantime, you produced another blog-article -, but I still feel the need to ad a footnote to your piece. Initially I did not have much of an opinion on the subject, but lately I came across an article by Vicente Navarro, which has a different take on the November 25 election. He has extensively written about the subject in Publico, e.g. “La gran estafa en Catalunya, parte I y parte II" and predicted the outcome and the reason for Mr. Mas' unfortunate outcome.
He asserts that the losing 12% of his former 62% his votes is due to CiU's austerity policy, in which he follows the same course as PP. According to Navarro was the "la marcha del 11-Septiembre" no so much an expression of their longing for Independence as protest against the neoliberal policies of the right. Mas tried to hi-jack their dissention for his independence cause and got punished for that. The gains of the election went to the left parties.
Therefore, the outcome of the election mirors the protest of the rest of Spain against the PP en CiD, its quasi-independent vassal, and not so much the wish for independence, but more democracy and right to decide things for themselves.
Herewith I give you the Spanish article and hope it will of some interest to you. http://www.vnavarro.org/?p=8191
As for the independence movement of the Flamish - why don't they join The Netherlands? They will be member of Europe right-away and without any problem and the dream of a bigger Holland of the 1830 will at last been realised!!
Charles Rodijk
Thank you for your comment, which questions my conclusion that independence was the main motivation behind the election outcome of November 25 and argues that the austerity program was the main cause. It is a bit more complicated than that, and probably also a bit more boring.
Catalonia is a classic case of a multidimensional political system. The left-right dimension (socialist/anti-socialist) is strongly developed, in the sense that there are strong parties both on the conservative side and on the socialist side. At the same time the independence dimension cuts across the left-right dimension with equally strong effects: There are “independistas” at both ends of the left-right scale, both among conservatives and among socialists. Within the independence dimension there are further complications, since one of the more important non-independence parties, the PSC, as well as others, are “federalistas”, a pragmatic half-way position favoring a constitutional revision that would make Spain a federal state, while the remainder of those opposed to independence wish to remain within the existing system. On top of this comes the wave of reactions to the austerity program that is referred to in the comment, which mainly mobilizes the left.
In other words, if you boil this down to being mainly a struggle over neo-liberal policies, I think you are missing something. Of course, the perceived economic hardship of Catalonia is one of the main factors behind the independence campaign (see my blog of October 28), but that is less the austerity thing than the unpopular long-term arrangement of Catalonia's contribution to the Spanish state financial system. Austerity measures have come on top of that and may therefore be said to have precipitated the current crisis without being a main cause. Artur Mas has so far followed the central (Madrid) government's line on austerity because to do otherwise would prematurely put him in a position of constitutional revolt. He would rather revolt on independence and therefore bet on that issue to bring him election victory. The outcome shows that he seriously misjudged his voters on that count. Still, he persists and the opposition is too splintered to offer any resistance.
This week (December 21, 2012), Mas secures parliamentary support for a coalition of his conservatives CiU and the left-wing party ERC with a promised referendum on independence before the end of 2014. Economic issues have a minor place in the agreement, are mainly linked to institutional preparations for independence, and are mostly being set aside for later discussion. I believe this supports my original assessment.
Post a Comment