Wednesday, October 28, 2015

The Ultimate Test of European Liberal Immigration Policies

Various evidence indicates that 2/3 or more of all non-European migrants currently arriving are in search of a better life. That is nothing for them to be ashamed of, but also no reason to grant them asylum. On the other hand, our European challenge now is much greater than just bolstering the shaky asylum regime. It must be changed, reformed, and nobody dares.

A liberal border and asylum regime in the European Union worked as long as most people outside the EU were reasonably content with their condition. They stayed at home, and Europeans expected them to continue doing that. In return, European development aid was a way of paying off a perceived debt of guilt.

But now, that formula no longer works. When war and social turbulence rattle a whole region in Europe's southeastern vicinity, one should not be surprised to see civilians moving away from chaos. Syrians' closest neighbors outside of that chaos are Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan. They have done more than could be expected of them. After years of shouldering the burden, their capacity to help was exhausted. There was only Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states left who had resources and space to aid refugees.

But these Arab Muslim brothers were brothers only in theory. In practice, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has showed itself to be morally sick. High on sharia, low on humanity.

So turning to the West was the alternative left to the refugees from Syria, Iraq, Libya and beyond. Indeed, over the horizon Europe was beckoning, with generous governmental subsistence grants (see my blog of June 26) for those who gained asylum. The policy of northern EU countries offered a predictable monthly respite from poverty - but also from the need to work or learn the language of the host country. Information on the amount of the subsidies was easily available even outside Europe, and the flow of migration went "to the highest bidders", Sweden and Germany. 

It may be crass to say it like that, perhaps, but that is the pernicious outcome of a well-intentioned policy that was supposed to be more or less the same all across the EU. Member states - like Sweden - who felt able to offer a bit more than the sparse EU average subsidy - were of course free to do so. This competition among the generous few led to the ludicrous situation that asylum grantees in Sweden receive more than the average income of Swedish citizens, and are not required to pay taxes on this income. Why seek a job under such circumstances?

Other Nordic countries, like Denmark and Norway, have recently changed their policies in a more sensible direction.

Of course, in the waiting period for a decision on their status, asylum seekers in Sweden are not as well provided for as those whose applications have already been accepted. Asylum seekers' per diem keeps them acceptably supported, and their lodging is free. Yet, if  their asylum application is denied, and they are due to be deported, Swedish authorities have not until now implemented their deportation immediately. Instead they have even continued to pay the same per diem as before, even though the recipients are (by now) illegals. Desperate to stay, these illegals do what most in their situation would - they hide. Some are stressed to the point of turning to violence, as recent cases in Sweden show.

Out of a desire to appear kinder than most, Sweden has also exceeded the EU advisory norms on other counts. The EU has advisory policies on most aspects of the treatment of non-European migrants. One of them is the special care to be taken to help unaccompanied children - defined as youngsters up to the age of 18. Now how do you tell the age of a person who has no reliable ID, or none at all? Using medical criteria is the obvious solution, as is done by most Nordic countries, and others. Except Sweden, where influential voices claim that such testing is a "breach of personal integrity".

So Sweden is now well stocked with "children" of normal adult stature, sporting beards, using drugs and showing rough behavior not exactly typical of children. Tests by migration authorities on hundreds of asylum seekers, conducted both in Denmark and Norway, have shown that between 3/4 and 9/10 of the asylum seekers who claimed to be children, are medically speaking over 18. Sweden accepts them on their word. Their acceptance as children in Sweden is jeopardizing the existence of the real child migrants who are housed separately and given special care. As I see it, those who lie about their age are not the kind to be welcomed as new residents of Europe.

Other statistics on the masses of non-European arrivals in 2015 indicate that a large number of them are young men, under 35, who are in search of a better life. Realistically, these young men have had the choice of either going to war for one of the fighting sides in Syria (or whatever country they are from), or get out, in search of a peaceful existence. Many of them have families. Of course they would not be safe if they should go back. So who can blame them for "choosing peace", which is actually what they do, even as they run away from deportation? Their situation illustrates the unsuitability of the entire asylum and immigration regimes for the kind of situation where a country's whole civilian population is on the run because of the conduct of a murderous few.

The true situation now, in which very large numbers of migrants will predictably see their asylum application rejected, is "how to move them back out of Europe", how to find "safe countries" to move them to. The impatient say, kick them out, send them back where they came from.

Will that work? Hardly. Large numbers of them are likely to run away, go underground. We Europeans have contributed - by a misconceived, excessively unconstrained policy - to creating a situation that is unsustainable. The consequences will now be fully upon us. We need to recognize that from now on, Europe has a large new contingent of prospective future citizens in our midst, a minority that we cannot simply treat as criminals. 

The massive numbers of present migrants are far beyond the capacity of EU member states to offer meaningful welfare. A completely revised legal regime is required. The prohibition on returning deported persons to unsafe countries of origin is idealistic, but unsustainable. It must end. 

At the same time, immigration on normal (non-asylum) grounds must become much more open, much more available to people from non-European backgrounds. Immigration for work is the only solution. EU labor unions hold the key to resolving this conundrum. If they do not see their current blocking position for what it is, we are headed for a spate of ugly conflicts all across our continent. In fact, they have already begun.


6 comments:

Vetenskap & Politik said...

Dear Olav,
Thanks for an interesting and reflected piece. Although I agree with much of what you say, I have some question marks for some Swedish “data”. First, Sweden do actually check the age of youngsters who claim to be less than 18 years, albeit not as frequently as in the other Nordic countries. As I understand it, the major reason to this is that the methods available (teeth and wrist x-ray) are very uncertain. Anders Hjern, a Swedish child doctor and professor (Dagens Samhälle, August 7, 2015) concludes that if everyone was checked with best available scientific methods, “…probably more than 1 of 5 in age between 15 and 17 would incorrectly be said to be 18 or older”. That doesn’t sound like sound and safe methods to me (and not to many medical doctors, the critique has been especially harsh in Britain, where this method has been abandoned and replaced by psychosocial assessments).
Regarding compensations to those that have gotten a negative decision, but stay in Sweden hiding, it is not correct that they get compensation. My parents have been helping out people in this situation in their close neighborhoods for about 20 years, because these people have nothing whatsoever to subsist on. Possibly, this could refer to asylum seekers who got a negative decision, hide, and then if new information becomes available the case is opened again, and the asylum seeker is now in an open process and thus has right to compensation again.
Furthermore, I definitely question whether asylum seekers or people who gotten their permission to stay get more money than Swedish citizens. Asylum seekers get less money than Swedish citizens on social care. When having permission to stay, the rules should be equal to everyone, independent of background (even though I know that elderly do often get lower compensation that the Swedish “guarantee pension” – not sure why, though). Surely, I would not want to have a system with compensation based on ethnicity…
Lastly, I fully agree with you that “immigration for work is the only solution”, although those who have rights to asylum most be given permission to stay. I think the main problem in Sweden (as in Scandinavia and some other Northern European countries, I guess) is that the welfare state, as we have known it, is probably not possible to sustain, given the globalization that we (the West) have done our best to speed up. Up to now, we have been able to live in a bubble up here, while having the possibility to buy cheap consumer goods etc. from countries where wages are extremely low and working conditions poor. Now, when large scale globalization also includes people, I think the only two options are to fence off people as several European countries now are trying (but probably will not work) or to accept a labor market where minimum wages are much lower than what we are used to and labor laws much more flexible. This means that the Nordic model if not goes in pieces, certainly is transformed to something much more similar to, for example, the US system. Most people here probably don’t think this is a good development, but then again, is a low-paid worker in Sweden morally more wrong than an even lower-paid worker in Bangladesh or some African country?
It would be very valuable if trade unions contributed to finding ways to make entrances to job markets more flexible, but at least in Sweden, there are no signs of this, I am afraid. On the contrary, Construction unions in Sweden have strongly objected when the SAP government suggests that the Construction market could be opened up to allow immigrants to work also out of regular Union contracts, since at least for now, there’s room for both groups. But then again, trade unions cannot be expected to protect common goods. They represent their members, no one else (which is particularly problematic in Sweden because of the symbiosis between the Workers Union (LO) and the Social Democrats in government).
Best, Björn H

Olav F. Knudsen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Olav F. Knudsen said...


Olav F. Knudsen said...
Björn, I appreciate your comment, but our facts clearly diverge. Medical examinations to determine age - on this I believe you are not well informed. As late as today's evening news (SVT Rapport, Oct 29, 2015) Migrationsverket was reported to consider REintroducing the medical tests which have been used previously (though only sporadically). The system now in force in Sweden is to only do medical tests requested by the applicant him/herself. Your medical witness notwithstanding, and methods are indeed uncertain, but why should those coming to Sweden be dramatically less inclined to lie than those arriving in other Nordic countries? 8-9 % were estimated to lie about their age in Sweden a few years back when a small sample was tested, as against two thirds to 3/4 in Finland, Norway and Denmark with mandatory medical testing?
As for payments to illegals, I am talking only about the short term, immediately after decision to deport. Deportation must take place immediately upon decision, and payments must then be cut off at the same time. The long term is a different matter. Speedy repatriation is of the utmost importance under the current European circumstances.
Amount of payments, check out my blog 26 june and Försäkringskassan, which in 2013 confirmed that a single mother with three children (11, 12 and 13) living in an 85sq m rental apartment would receive 22 250 sek per month tax free. See also Jan Tullberg, Handelshögskolan, whose book Låsningen offers better information than most other sources on this issue.
As for the rest, I am glad to see that our views mostly coincide.

October 30, 2015 at 12:53 AM

Vetenskap & Politik said...

Dear Olav,
Thanks a lot four your comment upon my comment. Here’s a brief reply. I am not so sure whether our “facts” really diverge and I am not sure I fully understand in what respect I am not “well informed”. Maybe it has as much to do with political views – where I tend to adopt a liberal view, emphasizing individual equal rights more than anything else – as with “facts” (which are seldom as unequivocal as they may seem, and/or may be selected in ways that make them seem to support most types of claims).
Anyway, regarding age testing, I fully agree with you that “lying” about ones age most likely is equally frequent in Sweden as in other countries (I write “lying” as it might not be the case that all asylum seekers are perfectly sure of their age, this differs a lot between cultures and societies). To me, it is quite understandable that if your life is at stake, lying might be a price you have to pay. I would certainly consider lying in that type of situation, even more so if it concerned my children’s’ future. But I do maintain that it is problematic to use a method to determine age that experts say is not safe enough. I am deeply concerned when I hear respected politicians disavowing these experts’ views in favor of political opportunism. Actually, the expert I referred to in my response was interviewed in the same TV program yesterday you referred to, and as you saw, he emphasized the uncertainties inherent in this method. However, I do realize the need to assess the age of youngsters coming here (as long as we have young age as a criterion to stay). I am not sure, but maybe it would be better to follow the British way of doing things, using psychosocial assessments rather than x-ray methodology. I guess it would not really be rocket science to make a scientific comparison on reliability between the two methods to become better informed…
Finally, regarding compensation to those who have permission to stay. My point was that I think it is self-evident in a fair society to give the same level of compensation to recent arrivers as to those born in Sweden, as long as they have been given the right to stay here permanently. Whether or not the compensation paid as welfare generally is too generous or not, is a different issue.
Have a nice weekend, Björn

Olav F. Knudsen said...

Björn, when I say "facts", I am referring to something you can verify from a source. The source may or may not be reliable, but the evaluation is up to you. In this case the sources are Swedish authorities. Their officials' statements are facts that bind the institution. Of course, when you as an ordinary citizen hear or read something you do not like, one way out is to ignore it, another is to dive to the bottom of the raw data and look for a contrary case. But unfortunately, it is the bigger picture that counts, which is why I also refer to crime statistics.

Unknown said...

Dear Olav, thanks for your well-considered view on the housing problem of the refugee-influx in Europe – still, some open questions are worrying me.
Firstly, is the Schengen-treaty not exclusively meant for the inhabitants of the affiliated countries, who are free to move freely within a well-defined Europe? Refugees or migrants cannot claim the same rights. For letting them in, anyway, there have to be other reasons, humanitarian or morally justified, decided on sovereign grounds.
Secondly, how could such an upsurge of refugees be explained away by calling them economic migrants, searching for a better life? OK, you point at the chaos in the Middle-East as the cause – fleeing the horror and looking for a way out in the direction of Europe for a save heaven. The problem for me here is that the chaos-situation in Syria, Iraq, Libya, etcetera is of our own making, in tandem with the US, which is the main instigator. Our geo-political interventions in the Middle-East are the root cause of the refugee-crisis. For me it is not Schengen, but the moral imperative of our guilty conscience to make room for as much refugees as possible.
Or…. even better: to stop meddling in Syria etc. , join forces with Russia to defeat Isis and, in doing so, to keep the system of it’s government intact, making it healthy again. Thereafter it would be wise for the western world to start reparation payments for all the damage done to it’s infrastructure. That would restore the confidence of Syria and Iraq to stand on it’s own feet again. A better incentive for the refugees to go back to their home-country doesn’t exist.
And do not expect any help from Sunni Saudi-Arabia and the Gulf States, for the refugees are mostly Shiites (or secular Sunnis), killed, murdered or chased away by their extremist Sunni helper: Isis. They are no brothers but age-old enemies.
Olav, I do not expect my suggestions to be of any feasibility, unfortunately, because western arrogance and sense of superiority stand in the way of common sense, logic and justice.
PS: last nights Paris killings in the name of ISIS are even more complicating the refugee-problem: how to distinguish between authentic refugees and Isis sleeper cells? The islamophobic far-right in Europe is having a field day!