Putin's Halloween Prank

(On this story, see also the June 1st feature in Politico,)

October 2014 saw a dramatic and much publicized submarine hunt in Swedish waters, just as a shaky new coalition was taking power in the Swedish Riksdag. Against the backdrop of continual Russian air provocations against most Nordic and Baltic countries, as well as the ongoing Ukrainian war, suspicions were quickly focused on Moscow. The search was terminated inconclusively. Unknown at the time, a second submarine hunt was secretly launched just the week after the first. 

The news about this broke only in January 2015, by Dagens Nyheter, a leading Swedish newspaper. Moreover, a few weeks later, on February 8, additional details became known that put the story in an even more intriguing light, as reported by Dagens Nyheter's security policy specialist Mikael Holmström.  Another "possible submarine" of unknown origin had been spotted entering Stockholm harbor.

Apparently it is now regarded as nearly certain, though unofficial, that four sightings of submarines in the Stockholm archipelago after the big hunt earlier in October were of the same submarine, making it possible to map its route over two days, October 31 and November 1st. The first sighting was in the outer approaches to Stockholm where the search had gone on the week before. The second and third of these sightings were made five hours after the first, at Vaxholm, much closer to Stockholm. Pictures were taken this day, October 31, showing the sub slowly cruising in surface position in the early evening sun, headed towards the city harbor only a few miles ahead, with a number of smaller local boats passing it at close range. The Swedish navy vessel that was urgently brought to the scene found nothing. The next day another sighting at Vaxholm reported a similar submarine in surface position leaving the area. According to Holmström, the Swedish Defence Forces have announced that they regard all four sightings as the same sub. It is part of the story that the waters of Stockholm harbour have only one channel of entry and exit for large vessels. In other words, Putin's submarine apparently spent the night of Halloween tucked away somewhere in Stockholm harbor. Some prank to pull. 

So what lesson to draw? A few may ask what's wrong with a peaceful visit by a neighbor country's submarine. Most, however, probably feel deep concern after more than a decade of sharp reductions in Swedish defense budgets.

As another commentator wrote, military courtesy and sovereignty (!) aside, here you have the parliament and government of Sweden literally sitting ducks for commando teams aboard an intruding vessel. Mr. Putin must have had a good laugh.

PS. The latest news in this story, as of April 13, 2015, is that the Swedish Navy now deny the picture shows a black submarine. They claim instead that it shows a smaller white fiberglass boat used by the Swedish Navy for maintenance purposes. The skipper of that boat in turn disputes this new story, pointing out that his boat is indeed in the picture but in a different location than the clearly visible submarine. Three other witnesses stick to their earlier reports. One of them is a retired navy officer.