Decision on Catalonia - updated

Catalonia's informal consultation of the public's opinion November 9th about independence from Spain ended with a whimper. While the Catalonian government and friendly foreign press reported an impressive support for independence with 80% yes votes, voter turnout was rarely cited. It was in fact very low, 36 %. Nearly two thirds of the voters stayed home, in other words. No big step forward for the independence movement occurred, rather the opposite. And the chances of some kind of agreement with Madrid are now more remote than ever.

So, why could not reasonable political leaders, who disagree fundamentally, but still inhabit the same country and live under the same laws, sit down and talk like civilized people about the issues that divide them? Probably because the issues between Barcelona and Madrid, or between Spain and its autonomous community Catalonia, are not really substantial (see my blogs January 2014, September 2013, November 2012, October 2012). This is also obviously why so many voters declined to participate. 

Europe supposedly is the home of political reason. But secession, like amputation, is a painful matter. One way to handle such business was recently demonstrated by Russia, who seized Crimea from Ukraine after a sham referendum. No need to talk there. At the other extreme, in September 2014 Scotland and the United Kingdom showed the world how to go about this kind of affair in a civilized manner.

In Spain, as the Catalonian issue has surged during the last few years, the two sides have repeatedly urged negotiations. A few attempts have been made to start talking. Nevertheless, nothing has come out of it. Spain's Premier Rajoy has dragged his feet, bolstered no doubt by the clear letter of the Spanish constitution, the strong legalistic tradition of his country and the absolute majority his party (Partido Popular) enjoys in the national assembly. Catalonian president Artur Mas has been the vocal force behind the Catalonian campaign. He promised nevertheless after one of these sessions in Madrid that he would do nothing illegal. Yet his actions at home leave that in doubt.

Catalonia and Mas have continued to declare their intentions quite clearly, followed up with formal steps. In early 2013 the Catalonian parlament passed a resolution declaring sovereignty and independence for Catalonia. The Spanish government responded by calling for the Spanish Constitutional Court to decide on the declaration's constitutionality. The court responded by ordering the suspension of all efforts to prepare for implementation of the declaration (April 2013).

Still, Catalonia's government proceeded half a year later to pick a date for the referendum (to take place on November 9, 2014). The wording of the questions to be asked at the referendum was decided at the same time. In January (2014) Catalonian members of the Spanish national assembly in Madrid proposed to the Congress to permit a referendum to take place in Catalonia about future relations between Spain and Catalonia, a belated nod to the UK procedure. The proposal was rejected out of hand. Perhaps too hastily.

Scotland's forthcoming decision then kept all in suspense from March to September this year. The subsequent failure of the Scottish independence campaign triggered further immediate steps in Spain. Within days, the Catalonian parlament decided, in spite of the Constitutional Court's earlier decision, to go ahead with preparations for the November 9 referendum. President Mas signed a decree following up on the practical preparations. Madrid responded with dispatch, submitting the case once more to the Constitutional Court, and receiving its preliminary judgement a few days later: Catalonia's decisions were illegal.

President Artur Mas, the self-declared law-abider, was not deterred. True to his demagogic bent, he proceeded from formality to informality. If we are not allowed a formal referendum, then why not go for a spontaneous, informal one? Let the people come forth. We will provide rooms for the occasion. "Bring your own paper and pencil." That certainly cannot be illegal?

Madrid thought otherwise. After first appearing to brush this latest attempt aside as farce, the government on October 31 brought even this matter to the urgent attention of the Constitutional Court, arguing that the realities of the case were the same as before. On November 6, the Court decided to suspend even this alternative version of the referendum.

Secession is indeed difficult.

In legal terms this case is closed. In political terms it might have been possible to solve more smoothly with some give and take. Here, I believe, is where North European and Spanish political cultures diverge. In Spanish thinking "the law is the law". Further north the thinking is, there is always room for discussion. Madrid does not want to discuss with Barcelona as long as the law has the answer. This may be good law, but not excellent politics.

Moreover, there are others queuing up behind Catalonia, above all the Basque Country, which to me has a stronger case for independence, at least politically. Other autonomous regions may also aspire to the same. The central government is bound to deal with all of them if it cannot stop Catalonia now. This points to the larger issue.

Spain would benefit from a structural makeover to let its constituent 17 pieces fit better into the whole. This is a constitutional issue, left only half resolved by the democratic document of 1978. As an insolent outsider, I would suggest the Spanish Constitution must be revised to give the country a clearer federal structure. Several parties in Spain have already had this demand on their program for some time.

The issue is not only a Spanish or a British one. It affects the whole European region, partly with side effects, partly with the contagion of separatist sentiment. It is somewhat problematic in this context that the EU has assumed such great competence and is making such great resources available to regions within member countries, bypassing their national governments, at least in a political (though not juridical) sense.

So to Catalonia's demand, there is a counter-question: What if all the rest of the regions of Spain, of Britain, of France, and of Italy, ... (etc) were to make the same demand? Why should their demands not be met? Yes, why not, indeed? We are approaching the realm of child-rearing here, the problematic sort that raises all kinds of issues. "If the kid wants something, let him have it." Catalonia's case is not a forced union. The last time Catalonia had a referendum - some thirtyfive years ago - it was along with all of Spain, and Catalonia voted yes to the Spanish constitution with over 90%, the highest in Spain. They freely chose it, and they should be made to make the best of it.

Says this supporter of Baltic independence in the 1990s (they left a forced union), and supporter of Norwegian secession in 1905 (also from a forced union). I hate to think what kind of Europe would be the outcome of secession on demand.