Ukraine and Crimea - Not Primarily an International Crisis

Somehow the future of Crimea has suddenly become an urgent issue we are expected to consider, as if it were the previously hidden heart of Ukraine's problems, as if the rights of Mr. Putin and the Russian nation have been offended by some major misdeed against Crimea's Russian-speaking population. As if Ukrainians are collectively guilty of Crimean atrocities, justifying a Russian intervention. No, neither Ukraine nor Crimea is primarily at the center of an international crisis.

The real problem is the long-lasting, and increasing, misgovernment and mismanagement of Ukraine, dating back two decades or more, but reaching a crescendo this winter. For a big industrialized country to sink so deep in economic woes, there is more than just a bit of ignorance and misfortune behind it all. A country in which the shadow economy is estimated at 50% or more of GDP, where a whole social layer of smart movers - mid-level and higher "managers" - are organized in networks that skim the profits of most sectors of the economy. A parliament filled with collaborators of those shadow-economy chieftains, and a government skimming the skimmers. The corruption networks have been known for years and are well described by the Economist in a recent issue.

 The only surprise is that large numbers of ordinary Ukrainians ultimately find the strength to protest outdoors for months on end - in wintertime, no less. Actually, their behavior fits the old J-curve hypothesis about revolutions, how people revolt when, after gradually experiencing improved conditions, they suddenly see their hopes quashed by some dramatic event. That fits the story of Ukraine's negotiations for EU association during most of 2013, only to call it off when the agreement was ready to be signed. And no wonder they were skeptical about the new government as well when Mr. Yanukovich later fled the country.

Basically, of course, Ukraine is dependent on economic relations both with Russia and with Europe. To Russia, Ukraine is probably more a strategic than an economic asset. To the EU, probably neither. Just a key relay station for Russian gas pipelines to the west, which the EU has - indolently and carelessly - allowed itself to become dependent on.

So, whether Crimea is right or wrong to suddenly demand secession from Ukraine, and a reunion with Russia, this is simply a red herring. Indeed, one can easily sympathize with a demand for a referendum from a population that has several times been shifted like a package between Russia and Ukraine, without anybody asking those involved what they thought about it. Except, why has this demand been raised just now, when the problems of Ukraine are acute, but have nothing to do with Crimea? This is sheer manipulation, and who the manipulator is, is obvious.

But Ukraine cannot escape its cohabitation with Russia. Managing its own internal affairs better is Ukraine's only solution. At this stage, losing Crimea - one way or the other - is likely to be the price they will have to pay for getting through it all. It will be their punishment for allowing themselves to continue after 2004 living in such political and economic disorder. The betrayal of the Orange Revolution says it all.

In international strategic terms, Ukraine's only significance is being the missing piece in Russia's games with its imaginary enemies. Of course, that makes it also of considerable interest to the West. But let no one fool you to feel sorry for Ukraine.