(This post is no longer relevant, since the Congress of Deputies in Madrid voted a resounding No to the Catalonian proposal on April 8, 2014. I leave it here nevertheless, for whatever interest the details of the proposal might have.)
The Spanish Constitution of 1978 explicitly declares the country is indivisible. That constitution was adopted in a referendum in which more than 80% voted yes, and Catalonians voted more than 90% yes. Times do change.
When I last wrote on Catalonia, its President Artur Mas had just declared that he would not do anything illegal in his quest for independence. Not long after that the Catalonian government made public its proposed questions for a referendum on independence, and announced that it would be held on the 9th of November 2014. The government in Madrid, however, made clear in no uncertain terms there would be no referendum.
Then, in mid-January 2014, came the next rebellious step from Catalonia. The Parlament in Barcelona decided by a nearly two-thirds majority to ask the Spanish Congress for permission to hold a referendum.
This request by the Catalonian Parlement has been widely interpreted as a plea to be allowed to vote on independence. But this is not what the proposal says. Anyone who reads the Spanish text will see that it is much more intricately worded than that. The request is framed within a constitutional provision (article 150.2) that enables delegation of extraordinary power to an autonomous community such as Catalonia to undertake exceptional measures for a limited time, in this case a referendum. In the proposal the word "independence" is not mentioned. The stated objective is to allow Catalonians to express their views in a consultative referendum on "the collective political future of Catalonia, taking as its point of departure terms to be agreed with the Government (of Spain)".
Obviously, independence is not mentioned because it is prohibited by the Spanish Constitution. But then why ask permission for a referendum anyway? I can see a couple of reasons why.
1. It is the civilized thing to do, what Europe would expect, and what Scotland already did in a similar situation. To refuse to allow a simple advisory expression of popular opinion will be very poorly received outside Spain, and the political battle over Catalonia's future has in large part become a contest over images in international media. Madrid would come out looking exceedingly bad if they refuse.
2. If the request is accepted - along with some kind of (miraculously) negotiated agreement - Catalonia and Madrid might actually come to terms in a way that saves face on both sides, provided the question to be voted upon does not refer to "independence". It is fairly certain that while a Catalonian vote could exceed 50% yes to something phrased akin to independence, it is unlikely to offer a political platform for secession.
Regardless of all the rhetoric, secession even after a 60% yes vote would be a political non-starter, a project doomed to failure - with Catalonia left outside the EU and with Spain subsequently vetoing its application to become a member of the Union. In my judgment therefore, Artur Mas is already in a dead-end street. A referendum result of about 50% would let him bow out gracefully, and Catalonia could continue in its role as an intransigent region of Spain.
3. It is also possible that the request is simply a political trap, designed specifically to be rejected by Mr. Rajoy. Like practically everyone else, he may brush aside the objection that independence is not mentioned, because (as one can imagine him saying) "everyone knows what the Catalonians want, and this is how they have planned to wangle it out of us". So he and his party will deny the request with his absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies. From the perspective of the independence supporters in Barcelona, such an outcome would be just what they want, and to them politically, utterly insignificant. They would move ahead with their referendum in any case, and the whole thing would simply be a great publicity victory for Catalonia abroad.
But this last possibility will not change the political realities that come after a vote in favor of Catalonian independence. Either Mas gets off the bus at that point, and all will be reasonably well for the great majority of Catalonians - even those who saw their dream crushed.
Or Artur Mas will charge ahead with an independent Catalonia into the great unknown, with or (if he is fortunate) without Spanish troops at his heels.
2 comments:
Olav, let me start by saying I am not in favour of Catalan independente. But I hope that you have watched the discussion between Mas and Gonzales yesterday on la sexta. It would help you to understand that the whole issue of Catalan independence is not a simple legal issue. For some Catalans it is a deep rooted aversion against Madrid symbolized by the current arrogant PP government who uses it's absolute majority in parliament to enforce its conservative policies. But for most Catalans the real issue is what they perceive as the robbery of the money they earn in Catalunia to finance other regions led by corrupt PP or socialist administrations. This is the strong and widely shared perception of the average Catalan of which a majority has no Catalan roots but are children of emigrants from other parts of Spain. This is why Mas insists on getting a new fiscal treaty with the central government which will satisfy his voters. And this is why Gonzales emphasized the need for solidarity between rich and poor regions. Although the PP government knows very well that Catlunia is the economic motor of Spain and crucial for an economic recovery, it is playing a power game offering no exit to the impasse. The only hope is that some influential captains of industry in this country will convince the arrogant PP chiefs to start some kind of secret talks about an agreed solution that would be based on a revised fiscal status for Catalunia like the existing fiscal arrangement for Basque region. It is as simple as that and the only way to exit the current impasse.
Ben, thanks for weighing in. But if you have seen my previous blogs on Catalonia (esp. in 2012) you will se that I have addressed these issues before. Like you, I am convinced that talks should have proceeded between Madrid and Barcelona. Talks apparently were begun, and why they stopped is beyond me. The financial argument has also been thoroughly addressed by me before - the bottom line is that this kind of regional solidarity system is in place in many countries in Europe, including Germany, Switzerland and others, and the Spanish system is not tougher in its transfer effects than most others, it is if anything more lenient, according to a well-founded study I cite. So Catalonia has no real complaint there. The trouble in Spain is rather with the inequalities between the highly favored Basque Country and the rest. No country, in my opinion, can for very long maintain such a regionally unfair system in its public finances. Catalonia tried to breach that barrier, but they were rebuffed by Rajoy, and I think that was a mistake. Of course starting that discussion means raising the issue with all the other comunidades as well, but - like the federal reform of the Constitution - that can no longer be avoided.
The legal issues of independence on the other hand are real issues; the Catalonians have to take into account that the Constitution says what it says, and they have indeed done so. Now let the talks resume if they were broken off, or start now if they never did before. That is the only route to a sensible and viable solution.
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