President Mubarak has spoken once more. Amid a peak of demonstrations against him, and widespread anticipation that he would step down, he let it be known that he would continue to guide the country as a father guides his children, until the end of his term in September. The crowds were not pleased, but that is not likely to change his course. Even larger demonstrations are to be expected along with the announced general strike, certain to stir up renewed trouble where the army has to step in as peacemaker and with increasingly impatient (and violent) groups still supporting the regime.
President Obama, who yesterday more or less ordered the Egyptian President to step down, has learned the limits of American power the hard way - incredibly, just the way his predecessor did! Where do US Presidents get their notions of power from? The effect of Mr. Obama's statement was (surprise!) the direct opposite of that desired. A so-called stable US ally is now more unstable than ever, given the falling out between the two countries' leadership.
If Egypt has turned out to be unstable, that is first of all the fruit of Hosni Mubarak's policies over 30 years. A firm hand and a strong executive, yes - a favored army and a clear eye on what the price of it all would be: Peace with Israel. But how a man in that position has managed - for three decades - to "forget" his people's needs with all the money washing over him from abroad, this is inexplicable. While Mubarak is hardly likely to be the richest man in the world, as some reports had it on Wednesday, according to a more sober assessment by msnbc.com his worth may be as high as 2 billion dollars. (http://openchannel.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/02/10/6025656-mubarak-could-leave-with-2-billion). In any case, Mubarak's regime has been stability itself, and no wonder - given those terms.
2 comments:
You don't say anything about the likely consequences of his speech? Can he save himself this way (until September) - or is he risking the loss of support of those around him? Nopte the rumor that he has left the city with his family.
That's actually correct - I did not get to that. Now, more than 12 hours later, it is evident that the entire game may be shifting in Mubarak's disfavor, as you suggest. In the wider context, the consequence whether he leaves now or later is that Egypt opens up to an unprecedented possibility of change, which will have to be managed together by the main political forces of the country: the military, the Muslim Brotherhood and the other opposition parties. If they handle it wisely they may achieve a new stability. That is not terribly likely, since the factors that may go wrong along the way are so many. The consequences everybody will be watching for in foreign affairs are of course the peace with Israel (which needs to be kept) and the unfettered passage in the Suez Canal (which the army has already secured acc. to reports last week).
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